It has been a long, hard year to be involved in horse racing in the province of Ontario. The news has been devastating. Answers have been slow coming. The long term future is unknown.
The recent signing of deals between the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation and racetracks ensures that some level of rent will flow to the facilities on a temporary basis, until casino expansion plans move forward. But while those deals offer some benefit to tracks, they do not require horse racing to continue. The agreement between Woodbine Entertainment Group and Ontario’s agriculture ministry secures two years of funding for horse racing at Woodbine and Mohawk. Similar deals are expected at other facilities.
For breeders now facing the decision of what to do with their mares, there is little to hang one’s hat on. A two year plan is of little value when it comes to whether or not to breed in Ontario. Foals of 2014 will not begin racing until their two-year-old years in 2016 at the earliest.
However, despite the news and the continuing uncertainty, the truth is that those in the breeding business must now stop playing the waiting game. Not the two-year deals likely to be signed, nor the OLG Request for Proposal process, nor the potential for a spring election, will change anything at this point. Decisions must be made now.
It may seem counterintuitive, but I believe that the smartest breeders in the province are breeding their mares this year to Ontario sires. And there is a growing evidence to support their decision.
With the number of mares being bred in the province likely to drop dramatically, the fact is that when 2016 rolls around, even an Ontario Sires Stakes program a fraction of the current one could potentially yield dramatically higher earnings per foal than what we have today. Quite simply, in horse racing, less competition yields greater results per horse. At the same time, US jurisdictions like Pennsylvania, New York and Indiana may be riding high today but the potential for political crisis always hovers overhead. While diversification is always a smart decision, opting to move everything south or breed to all US stallions is hardly a sure thing.
In the province of Ontario, the crisis at hand has brought all three political parties to a place where the future of horse racing is openly important to them. The industry has gone from unknown and ignored to a lightning rod of political posturing. Every provincial politician now has some knowledge and awareness of horse racing. That is a good thing.
While it may seem utterly unreasonable to do, the horsepeople of Ontario have good reason to invest in the province. The risk has never been higher, but the potential rewards can not be underestimated. If our breeders take their best broodmares away from the province and mares are bred to US sires, what will the 2015 yearling sales look like? How many two-year-olds will be ready to go in 2016? Unless breeders are willing to brave the risky waters and remain dedicated to the program, what will 2017 look like?
Throughout history, many of the world’s most successful business people were those willing to make investments when everyone around them was contracting.
For those who are able to, the message is simple: See the opportunity. Take the risk. Reap the rewards.
Darryl Kaplan
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