You've made your pick and are ready to bet your ticket. Then, your horse gallops through post parade. Should you be nervous? Do you need to worry about heavy lather dripping from his chest as post-time nears? What about that paddock pit stop your horse took to replace a shoe?
By Bernard Tobin
In the hopes of helping you make the right pick to score a winning ticket, we asked some of Canada’s top trainers whether handicappers can gain a betting advantage by keeping a close eye on horses in warm-up, post parade and those final minutes before the gate folds and the windows close.
For serious bettors, there is a certain advantage to knowing the pre-race habits of the horses you’re playing. In most cases, change is not a good sign. Horses are creatures of habit, and when they’re off their routine, something is likely amiss. And then there’s the washout — the hothead or the galloping thoroughbred wannabe, which should start red flags waving or alarm bells clanging for serious and not-so-serious handicappers alike.
Trainer Rob Fellows, consistently one of the WEG circuit’s top conditioners, believes post-parade observations can give horseplayers an edge, but it takes a lot of work, attention to detail, and skill. “You have to know your horses and look for changes,” explains Fellows. “Good gamblers look for consistency. If you see a horse you’re watching all the time and he’s consistently sharp on the track — he’s always aggressive and the driver is usually working to keep him quiet — it would bother me if he comes out in post parade and looks very lethargic.”
Ben Wallace, whose string of standout trainees includes the likes of Blissful Hall and Camotion, suggests that the post parade should be the final litmus test for horseplayers who are looking to make a significant bet. He feels handicappers with big money on the line have to be confident that the horse is right that night. “If the horse comes out on the racetrack and it’s not the same horse that I watched the week before to initiate my bet, I would be reluctant to make a serious play,” says Wallace.
Other top trainers, like 33-year-old Jeff Gillis, agree. Gillis believes horses tend to provide warning signs before they throw in a clunker or poor effort. “When you see horses that are overly aggressive, I think the general opinion is that horse is sharp. But I believe that when horses are starting to get sick — when they have inflammation or mucus in their airways that is compromising their breathing — they panic some, and tend to become aggressive and agitated. That can be mistaken for sharpness. I never like a horse to be too aggressive.”
As a general rule, Gillis, who scored his biggest win in the 2010 Metro Pace with two-year-old pacer Mystician, notes a difference between gaits. “It always depends on the individual, but you want your trotters to look relaxed and well within themselves. Whereas a pacer, you might like to see them a little more on the bit — not necessarily pulling — but sharp.”
Soundness is also important, he adds. “You want the horse to be hitting the ground evenly and not be favouring anything or on a shaft. You want your driver to be in good control and not fighting them. And it’s never a good thing when a horse appears with excess lather on them.”
Tony O’Sullivan, who won his first Breeders Crown in 2006 as trainer of trotting filly Susies Magic, also has some post parade pointers. “I don’t like galloping in the post parade and trotters that are washed out, on edge or giving drivers a hard time,” he says. “I’ve had trotters over the years that have raced terribly when they acted up in post parade. If they’re overly aggressive, that takes a lot out of them in the race.”
O’Sullivan is also wary of the lackadaisical horse. “I like it when they seem a little bit proud. You can tell they’re sharp — they have their ears up and they’re up on the bit, ready to go.” He admits that post parade has changed a lot from the days when horses paraded before the public and then were required to turn and score down for the benefit of watchful railbirds. “On the whole, today they jog around twice and then go behind the gate. Unless something really jumps out at the bettor, I can’t see how they can gauge a wager on that.”
When it comes to younger prospects, trainers still like to see the horses scoring down and O’Sullivan feels there is something to be gleaned from the practice for a studious bettor. Over the years, trainers’ approach to warm-up has also changed. Traditionally, horses warmed up twice prior to post parade. While most trainers still follow that practice with two-year-olds, there’s little opportunity to see veteran campaigners strut their stuff more than once on race day before they head behind the gate.
“I’ll warm the babies up two trips,” O’Sullivan offers, “mostly because they’re getting used to it and it’s good for them to go some sort of a mile and loosen up a bit. They’re learning and you want to see how they are handling the environment.” But he feels there’s no real need to be going training miles with older horses. “They go super fast and going a mile with a free-for-all pacer doesn’t make any difference.”
Trainer Gregg McNair, however, who has topped the $2 million mark in trainer earnings eight times, considers himself more of a traditionalist. “I like to make sure they go two trips,” McNair admits. “I’ll go a little further with one that might have a muscle hurting him or sometimes a bad foot — they can warm themselves out of it. A lot of guys don’t turn them so you have to expect that they are a pretty sound horse.”
He feels if bettors invest the time to watch a horse warm up, they’ll be able to see if the horse has overcome any soreness and is ready to go in the post parade.
But are most bettors really qualified to evaluate horses? “If you don’t know what exactly you’re looking at or what you’re looking for — what appears normal — I don’t think just showing up and watching a card of races is any advantage for that particular week,” says Gillis.
For the investment to pay off, the trainer feels bettors have to consistently look at the same horses from week to week. “At Woodbine, for example, the same horses race basically every Friday night. If you made a commitment to watch every Friday and you got to see and know the tendencies of every horse — you would need a good memory or have to take notes — but I think you could probably pick up an advantage.”
If you’re looking for a post parade edge, here are five key factors these top trainers think you should consider.
1. Back to the Barn
When horses return to the paddock for equipment or shoe repairs, Fellows says horseplayers should focus their attention on the horses remaining on the track. "Horses that come back to the paddock tend to relax back at the barn because they feel safe."
Wallace is in full agreement with Fellows on this point. This past March, he was racing Lucern de Vie at Woodbine when another horse broke a line and caused a 15-minute delay. "Lucerne De Vie was at 9-5, but she's a rambunctious Angus Hall filly and they're known to be excitable. She washed out and ended up making a break. I don't know the last time she did that.
"If I'm a big player and a horse like her is bet down — in that situation — I wouldn't bet on her," says Wallace. "Whenever you take a horse out of their realm or routine, it's not a good thing. They've got themselves conditioned to be out on the track for six to eight minutes and then they turn and race. If they're out there for 15 to 20 minutes they can sometimes boil over or get excited."
In these situations, Gillis recommends that bettors scan the program for horses that have made gate breaks in their last six starts. "I would be worried about that horse, especially if he's left there fretting and is acting up."
McNair estimates that a delay, especially if it's anything that takes longer than two or three minutes, can have a negative effect on 30 to 40 per cent of the horses in the race.
2. On The Run
Gillis says horses galloping in post parade can be a concern, but bettors need to determine whether the behaviour is part of a horse's routine. He notes that top trotter Lanson (1:51.3, $668,571) routinely gallops during or just after post parade. "If you're a serious gambler, you're going to know that. If it's a horse that doesn't normally do it, it might concern me."
Fellow notes that many trainers from Europe, Australia and New Zealand often train trotters on the gallop as part of their routine to build endurance and keep them happy. "Some trotters will even pace an eighth of a mile before they switch over to the trot. Sometimes, that's just part of warming up the horse."
3. The Equipment Change
The post parade is also a good opportunity to evaluate horse equipment changes noted in the program. But in most cases, as Wallace points out, you have to know how the horse performed before the equipment change to notice any changes in manners or gait.
Wallace recalls a recent shoeing change he made on Art Professor (1:50.1, $236,907) to illustrate his point. “One night I switched him from aluminum shoes in front to steel. I didn’t train him in them much because he’s a horse that doesn’t need a lot of training. When I watched him in the post parade, you could just tell the extra weight was not consistent with his best gait. He got beat that night — he finished second or third — but I really thought the steel hurt him,” says Wallace who notes that he went back to aluminum up front the next week and the horse won.
“So in my own case, I can compare because I know what the horses are like generally. For a guy who’s on the outside looking in — the good gambler, the consistent gambler — they have to take it very seriously and have some sort of measuring stick to judge by week to week.”
4. The Recall
When it comes to recalls, Gillis gets concerned with trotters if they’re too keyed up, especially at the smaller tracks where drivers tend to keep the horses on the gate after the recall. “At Woodbine you take them off the gate or go around — that’s less stress. I would favour the ones that look calm and relaxed. And if you have a runaway or a real problem horse, you should rethink your bet,” says Gillis. “If a horse runs away for a quarter or three eighths of a mile and then they end up going straight to the gate, they’re bound to tire fast.”
Fellows has a few trotters that tend to be aggressive behind the gate. “Sometimes when there’s a recall, they can tie up, shut their air off or choke — they get so excited and the driver is just a passenger.” But he also notes that a recall can be an advantage for some horses. “A lazy horse, for example, might come back next time and be a little more on the bit. He may leave for you and get away a little better.”
5. On a line
Horses that turn their head and pull on either the right or left line may be telling the driver (and the bettor) they have some lameness or an issue they’re favouring. “I don’t think it’s ever a good thing for a horse to be on a line but I think it’s less concerning if you have horse that does it consistently,” says Gillis who points to the case of Four Starzz Meliss (1:49.3, $971,036), a lifetime winner of 50 races, to demonstrate his point. “Four Starzz Meliss always ran out in the lane. Whatever that soundness issue was, it was something she dealt with all her life — it was nothing new.”
But when a horse is suddenly on a line after going straight the week before, there is cause for concern. Some soreness may have developed that could compromise the horse’s performance as well as driving strategy. “Typically, those type of things do handicap a driver’s ability to move a horse,” explains Gillis. “If the horse runs in real bad in the turns, the driver may not be able to make his move when he wants. Most horses are not going to reach their full potential if they can’t be steered properly.”