There are few numbers more important to a horseplayer than ‘minutes to post.’ It's critical to evaluating odds, knowing which track to bet next, and understanding how a wager will impact a pool. Why, then, are racetracks across North America dropping the ball on this vital piece of information?
By Darryl Kaplan
My plan was simple: to find out how long it takes to start a race from the moment the ‘Minutes to Post’ timer on a simulcast broadcast hits zero. My tools: a stopwatch and a simulcast feed of 16 of North America’s top harness tracks.
Anecdotally, those of us who follow harness racing know that there is something unpredictable about the minutes to post at many of the top tracks on our continent. We have been burned by long waits and surprised by quick starts. Try asking a teletheatre veteran about when the next race at Yonkers or Northfield will begin. You’ll likely get an answer not suitable for children.
In theory, as the ‘Minutes to Post’ ticks down, with each passing minute - 6, 5, 4, 3… customers are expected to prepare their bets, and eventually take the plunge. Because odds become more reliable when money flows in, the amount of time before a race is vital to any handicapper, especially in harness racing where pools are often quite small until the final moments.
As one would presume, the clock’s dissention from “1” to “0” signals the point that the amount of time to the next race has dropped below one minute, thus beginning the count down in seconds, 0:59, 0:58, 0:57… While the clock remains fixed at zero, one would assume that 60 seconds after the last change, the wings would fold and the horses would be off. But that would be a faulty assumption.
My method to learn how long it takes for a race to start, from the point the timer hits zero, while unscientific, was done with care. For each of the 16 tracks in the study (Flamboro, Fraser, Rideau Carleton, Western Fair, Windsor and Woodbine in Canada and Balmoral, Cal Expo, Dover, Freehold, Meadowlands, Meadows, Monticello, Northfield, Pompano and Yonkers in the United States), a minimum of five races were timed. Races were chosen randomly between February 20 and March 18, 2011. An effort was made to include events from different days and different starting points during a card, in order to account for variations. Any race that had an announced delay or recall was excluded from the calculations. In total, 90 races were recorded.
I went into this study with open eyes. I expected a variance of times, and understand there are many moving parts, literally, to the start of a horse race. But what the study revealed was a picture of chaos. The time from zero to post ranged from an average of 32 seconds (at Rideau Carleton) to an average of 6 minutes, 20 seconds (at Cal Expo). Multiple tracks hit zero long before the horses leave the paddock for post parade. And, at some tracks, a huge percentage of the handle flows in after the time reaches zero.
While the variance from track to track is large, individual racetracks actually tend to be quite consistent in the time it takes to start a race. Meaning, a track that starts five minutes late does so consistently, leading one to believe the four, five and six minute gaps are intentional and planned.
Another eye opener is the remarkable difference north and south of the border. Despite sharing simulcast signals with our American friends, we certainly don’t share their propensity to procrastinate when it comes time to start a harness race, leading one to ask... what is the conversion rate of a minute in harness racing?
The average American track took 3 minutes, 41 seconds to get from zero minutes to the start of a race. In Canada, the time was just 1 minute, 36 seconds. In fact, while the Americans can be blamed for going too slow, in Canada, our tracks can be faulted for jumping the gun, with 10 of 37 races recorded actually starting before even one minute has elapsed.
So what is the reason for the disparity? Many hypothesize that certain tracks believe the extra time will drive more money through the pools. While many track executives agree that shoeing changes and recalls are a sure-fire way of seeing handles spike, those on the straight and narrow believe that customers are creatures of habit and quickly catch on to the tricks played by tracks that extend post-times.
Howard Bruno, the General Manager of Freehold Raceway, one of the quickest American tracks to close the gates, believes his customers appreciate Freehold’s approach. “When tracks started doing it – delaying the start of races – it was a little confusing, but horseplayers are used to it now, they’ve adjusted. Our customers appreciate the consistency, and most races are off within two minutes. We used to have no drag at all, but now we give an extra minute and it seems to help us.”
Alan Leavitt, the owner of Walnut Hall Ltd., and a member of the Kentucky Racing Commission, is more outspoken about the practice. “It’s an integrity issue,” says Leavitt. “If you take a newcomer to the races and six minutes elapse before the race starts, they’ll say, ‘what kind of business is this?’”
In Kentucky, Leavitt took action to stop the extended post time practice. Based on a Kentucky Racing Commission rule, the Red Mile was forced to trim their last minute drag to less than three minutes from what Leavitt says was “five to seven minutes.” Leavitt believes the action will have no negative impact on the track’s handle. “It’s a complete misconception that you’ll make more money through this practice,” he says.
Chris Roberts, Director of Racing Operations for Flamboro Downs and Georgian Downs, feels the key is consistency.
“Typically, most of the races at Georgian and Flamboro are started at a consistent time,” says Roberts. “It’s terribly important for our customers to be able to predict on a race by race basis what the gate is going to do. You need to be predictable.”
Roberts says he’d be happy if all tracks endorsed a consistent approach to the final minutes before a race. “I support anything that helps our customers,” he says.
Woodbine Racetrack, a track that consistently starts its races two and a half minutes after posting zero minutes to post, is utilizing a European designed starting gate that counts down the final 60 seconds before a race. Track management says the system helps produce more reliable and timely starts. Other tracks are evaluating a similar system for their facilities.
Meanwhile the issue of drag from zero to the word go plays havoc with horseplayers. Quick starting tracks result in bettors being shut out at the windows. Long delays produce frustrated customers unable to properly determine when the next race will go off. While tracks claim the customers become accustomed to the delays and get used to each track’s idiosyncrasies, in a world of multiple signals and television screens, such an assumption is a big one to make.
Most new self-service tote machines have a feature that highlights tracks as they approach post time, giving an unfair advantage to those products with regular delays. It could also be argued that tracks with five and six minute delays hurt overall handle, as customers holding live tickets, waiting for races to start, are unable to churn money through the pools.
Is it reasonable to ask customers to memorize the off times of 20 harness tracks to remind themselves which track will take five minutes to start and which track will be off in a minute?
While different camps have different opinions on the issue, most agree the problem is getting worse. So should there be a protocol to solve it, and if so, who should initiate and enforce it? Racing Commissioners International? Racetracks of America? Standardbred Canada and the United States Trotting Association?
While any of these organizations can make recommendations, the fastest way to create change would likely be for the some of the larger tracks and retailers to put pressure on those tracks that utilize long delays to drive handle. If it’s a racetrack driven solution, the tracks are probably more likely to live up to their end of the bargain. As well, how about a counter on the television screen that counts down in seconds as horses approach the gate. When it hits zero, the gate moves.
In harness racing, there is arguably no more important tool to the everyday horseplayer than the number of minutes to the next race. Isn’t it time to get this right?